The Cyprus economy
has joined the Parity of Exchange System, where it is expected
to remain in the EMU antechamber for approximately 2 years
before its entry into the EMU and the Euro.
However, what does this mean for property investment because the
Cyprus economy should meet the Maastricht criteria as a
prerequisite in order to join the EMU.
This means that inflation should remain under control, the
fiscal deficit must be reduced, loan interest must be reduced to
reach European levels (now is at 4.25 per cent, when we join it
will be at 2 per cent, thus the reduction will be done in
stages) and the most important is that our entry into the EMU
will not cause the devaluation of the Cyprus pound. When the
interest rates begin to drop and with the declared existence of
£2.4bn, which are legal now (black money previously), what will
it happen in the market?
The lower loan interest will attract more Europeans and other
buyers into Cyprus to either purchase or invest in immovable
property.
The current depositors will be targeting on a return that is at
least above the inflation numbers plus a little bit higher, at
around 5 per cent, which at present investors could get it only
from immovable property.
At the same time though, the Land Registry will introduce
shortly a new system on compulsory property sales and the target
is to carry out compulsory sales within a period of 8-12 months
(in Greece is 8 months and in Britain is 3 months) from the
start of the procedure.
Obviously the banks will proceed quickly in those sales and this
might cause an increase in supply and perhaps a small drop in
prices in certain property sectors, due to increased number of
possible mortgage liquidations. Although it sounds quite hard,
from the humanitarian aspect, we do not agree on carrying out
property compulsory sales within such a short period of time.
However, it will have some ‘good’ effect regarding the
constantly increasing property prices. The new Central Bank
regulations, regarding problematic loans - meaning loans that do
not abide by their repayment terms and conditions, presenting
installment delays exceeding 6 months (now) and probably 3
months (later) - will also have their impact on the property
market.
So what will happen in view of these measures?
The Banks will restrict their loans to ‘trustworthy’ property
development clients, thus causing suffering to the small
newcomers into the property market.
The Banks will demand higher own contribution from both the
developers and other borrowers.
The pressure to sell on time on the property developer’s part
will cause a drop in prices and consequently the reduction of
the developer’s profit due to ‘pressing’ situation.
People who want a loan for property purchase purposes will have
to meet more severe requirements, thus resulting in reduced
demand.
In previous articles we referred to the financing facilities for
the developers and how the banks, in our opinion, should take
into consideration the ‘conditions’ of the individual borrower
developer. Surely, dear readers, we are caught in times full of
unprecedented changes including significant variations in the
financing facilities offered by all the banks (none excluded) in
Cyprus.
So, we are expecting ‘turbulent situations’ in the Cyprus
property industry, which, in our opinion, will be to its benefit
at the end. The financially weak developers will be forced to
get out of the industry, thus increasing the people’s trust
towards the rest of them, while the above measures will bring a
balance to the constantly increasing property prices.
For those thinking to take their money out of the country, it is
not a wise option, since the interest rates abroad have been
much lower than the ones in Cyprus, while the Central Bank bonds
at around 6 per cent returns per year (on a long-term basis) is
a competitive alternative in relation to the possible danger of
the -15 per cent parity variation regarding the CYP£ against the
Euro. Therefore, such a decision should be studied carefully.